Democrats, facing fewer opportunities to pick up seats in the Senate and House, see a more fertile playing field in the three dozen governors’ races across the country this year. As a bonus, there’s even the potential of scoring an early knockout against a potential 2016 Republican presidential contender or two.
In campaigns with broad presidential implications, Democrats see encouraging signs in their fight against Republicans’ hold of 29 of the nation’s 50 governor’s mansions. Republicans will have a large map to defend – the GOP controls 22 of the 36 seats up for election, including six in states that Obama carried twice: Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin and Maine.
Part of the strategy aims to undercut a group of prominent Republican governors first elected in 2010 who have presided over improving economies and billed themselves as reformers in contrast to the dysfunction in Congress. Democrats have sought to tarnish New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was re-elected last year, as he deals with home state scandals and hope to extend the scrutiny to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. All three are potential contenders for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016.
“The myth of Republican governors as reformers is dead,” said Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin, who leads the Democratic Governors Association.
President Barack Obama’s allies jumped on the release of thousands of emails this week involving former aides to Walker. The emails appeared to mix official and campaign business while Walker was serving as a county executive and running for governor in 2010. The approach drew comparisons to their focus on investigations involving Christie, including emails indicating that former aides and allies participated in a decision to shutter access lanes to the George Washington Bridge as political payback.
Despite the ongoing home-state scandal, Christie plans to maintain an aggressive national travel schedule as the top fundraiser for Republican governors. But he was expected to keep a low profile this weekend as governors gather in Washington, D.C., for the annual National Governors Association meeting.
Walker is facing voters for the third time in four years. He escaped a recall election in 2012, when Democrats and unions sought revenge after a bitter fight over collective bargaining rights for state workers.
In the investigation involving his former aides, Walker was never charged with any wrongdoing. The probe closed last year with convictions against six of his former aides and associates. A second investigation is ongoing and reportedly looking into fundraising and other activities by Walker’s campaign and conservative groups.
In Ohio, Kasich is up for re-election in the perennial presidential swing state. Recent polls suggest he holds a narrow advantage over Ed FitzGerald, a little-known Democratic county executive. A former House Budget Committee chairman, Kasich was humbled by an expensive battle with labor unions in 2011 that overturned restrictions he championed on unions representing police, firefighters, teachers and other public workers. Kasich briefly sought the presidency in 1999 and Republicans say he could pursue it again if he wins re-election.
The GOP is waging a broad campaign to highlight improving economies and optimism under Republican governors from South Carolina to New Mexico. Republican strategists view Obama as a liability for Democrats, particularly in a number of Rust Belt states that elected GOP governors four years ago. But they acknowledge that the fall elections could influence the 2016 presidential race, when the GOP field could include Christie, Walker, Kasich and outgoing Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Rick Perry of Texas.
“2014 will have a lot to do with how 2016 turns out,” said former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. “If we re-elect most of our governors, and they run on their records, then the governors will become even stronger leaders of our party.”
The state campaigns represent an anomaly for Democrats, who face daunting challenges this year in trying to retain their Senate majority and recapture the House. In gubernatorial races, Democrats hope to go on offense.
In Pennsylvania, Republican Gov. Tom Corbett has struggled to recover after supporting deep cuts to public education, making a number of verbal gaffes and lingering questions about the Jerry Sandusky child abuse investigation at Penn State, which happened while he was attorney general. Republicans hope a competitive Democratic primary might produce an overly liberal nominee who will struggle in conservative parts of the state.
A tea party favorite, Maine Gov. Paul LePage has drawn a rash of negative press over his first term for making controversial statements. Polls suggest he is unpopular, but the Republican could benefit from a divided Democratic electorate in a three-way race.
Florida Gov. Rick Scott faces a comeback attempt by former GOP Gov. Charlie Crist, who is now running as a Democrat with the blessing of top Democrats. Scott, a wealthy health care executive before he entered politics, could spend up to $100 million defending his seat.
Elsewhere, Democrats are bullish on races in Arkansas, Michigan and South Carolina.
Republicans want to bind Democratic candidates to Obama on the economy and the health care rollout. They plan to challenge Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn, who avoided a primary challenge against former White House chief of staff Bill Daley, but could run into problems against the winner of a GOP primary field that includes wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford.
Other potential trouble spots for Democrats include Connecticut, where first-term Gov. Dan Molloy may face a rematch against Tom Foley, a former Republican ambassador who nearly defeated him four years ago.
“They want to talk about our governors because they don’t want to talk about their own,” said Phil Cox, the executive director of the Republican Governors Association. “They’ve got some very vulnerable incumbents.”
Democrats say their candidates need to explain the benefits of the health care law, noting that Obama would benefit from more allies in the states. The president’s health care overhaul was largely implemented in states with Democratic governors while their GOP counterparts tried to block it in court. Many Republican governors also opposed expanding Medicaid or creating their own statewide exchanges.
“I certainly wouldn’t be running away from the president if I were on the ballot this year,” said former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland. “There’s a lot of positive stuff to talk about.”