Newsweek reported September 16 that the figure comes from Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange where traders buy and sell contracts tied to future events. The 58% figure is based on contract prices and reflects traders’ expectations rather than a traditional poll or election result.
The figure has increased from 52% in April, according to Newsweek. Traders can buy contracts based on whether an event will happen, with prices changing as participants respond to new information.
The prediction-market shift comes as Democrats lead Republicans in national polling. USPollingData’s September average has Democrats at 49.3% and Republicans at 41.9% on the generic congressional ballot, a 7.4-point difference.
The generic ballot asks voters which party they would support for Congress without naming individual candidates. The national measure can show the broader political environment but does not determine which party will control Congress.
Republicans currently control both chambers. Democrats would need to gain enough seats in the November 3 elections to take control of the House and Senate.
The Kalshi figure is a snapshot of market expectations and can change before Election Day as traders buy and sell contracts. It does not represent an election result or guarantee that Democrats will control Congress.
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