October 2015, has come to a close, the last holiday of the month Halloween, has just passed. Good old Halloween, one of the fun holiday’s from my youth
We all remember, walking to our neighbor’s house, with our costumes on, all the candy you can eat, that seemed to last for days…scary movies at the theatre and at home on TV, just a fun time.
Well as an adult, an avid reader, community organizer, technologist, writer, father, chess mentor, I am not intrigued by Halloween any more, even my children are adults now and they don’t participate in the Hallowed Eve festivities, well… not like before.
But as we watch this current election cycle and look back at the last 7 years since Barack Obama, has taken over the Oval Office, I have to admit there have been a plethora of characters. Many of them have come and gone, mostly from the Conservative Right. Even that’s not what keeps me up at night, it’s how the Left and the Democrats have responded throughout several election cycles, that really breaks me out in a cold sweat. Let me explain…
While Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and others jockey for position to win a primary spot for the RNC, this past Super Tuesday, November 3rd 2015 the State of Kentucky had its gubernatorial election, Matt Bevin Republican and Tea Party Conservative beat Democrat Attorney General( I have nothing to do with Barack Obama) Jack Conway.
In case you don’t remember who Matt Bevin is. He was the Kentucky Tea Party candidate who wanted to drug test seniors on government assistance. He also mounted a primary challenge to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell because McConnell was thought to be, by Tea Party standards, too liberal.
Yet the reason why Matt Bevin’s win is so highly scrutinized is because no one thought he would actually win. He has no political experience other than as a candidate. Kentucky has a history of being a Blue State and the last governor was a democrat who expanded Medicaid and created a state exchange for the Affordable Care Act called Kynect. Which is very popular and has quite a bit of participation throughout the state.
Bevin ran his campaign on dismantling Obamacare in Kentucky. By the way his lieutenant Governor is an African–American woman by the name of Jenean Hampton who is now the first Black Kentucky statewide office holder. BAM…take that Democrats.
Ah, yes… the Tea Party, Anti-Deficit, Anti-Debt, Anti-Taxes and Anti-Obama.
If you remember in 2010-2012 election cycles the Tea Party candidates were the darlings of the Republican Party. Everyone was on the right was kissing up to the Tea Party, from Sarah Palin to Rand Paul. They won victories for Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Rand Paul in Kentucky, then something else happened they started winning victories against established Republicans. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) lost to Tea Party Candidate Mike Lee.
The Tea Party picked up wins in Colorado, Delaware, New York, Nevada and South Carolina
But when Senate Minority Leader Eric Cantor lost to Economics Professor Dave Brat, because he and other republican senators tried to work with Barack Obama. The Tea Party sent their strongest message to date. “Do not work with President Barack Obama on anything, or else.”
The monster is now attacking its creator.
Then Mississippi happened… establishment Republican Senator Thad Cochran a staunch Southern Republican and former Dixiecrat was running for his life to keep his U.S. Senate seat. His opponent State Senator Chris Mc Daniel was riding a very strong wave of anti-establishment Tea Party support. During the general election either candidate garnered over 50% of the vote.
They were forced into a runoff. Cochran and his handlers ventured into the black community to beg…I mean ask for their support in the runoff election. Now you realize Cochran was one of the Senators eating steak and working with his caucus on the night of Obama’s first inauguration. They decided that night that they were not going to work with this President on any legislation or anything else, because their goal was to make him a one term president. Cochran also voted to repeal The Affordable Care Act…42 times.
Mississippi did not expand Medicare. Cochran’s campaign suggested McDaniel was a tea party radical. In the African-American Community “Tea Party” is code for racist. The black community in Mississippi votes solid Democratic. This community allowed themselves to be exploited by Cochran’s Tea Party boogeyman. Did anyone in this community look into Cochran’s voting record? What was his stand on voting rights, was he pushing the “Election Fraud” republican gobbledygook so it’s harder to vote in black communities? Well probably not for this runoff.
Let me add, that this move by Cochran, was applauded by the Congressional Black Caucus, for his use of black constituents to win his runoff. Blow smoke on that one. To this writer there was no reason for those Black Mississippi constituents to vote for Thad Cochran, for any reason.
He has never did anything for them directly, and more than likely never will. He has put forth legislation that that is anathema to their very existence. He was a Democrat until 1967 two years after the Voting Rights Act was signed by LBJ and Dr. King. He along with other Dixiecrats moved in mass to the Republican Party once Black people could vote unheeded by Jim Crow laws and terror. Like Nina Simone said “Mississippi Goddamn”
When it comes to winning or losing midterms, governorships and local State legislative positions how much of this can be attributed a Democratic Obama Presidency? According to Larry Sabato, a political expert at the University of Virginia Center for Politics… “GOP’s national and local resurgence under the Democratic-controlled White House is not surprising, in part, because of the historical trend for two-term presidencies”. Remember that before the 2010 and 2012 elections, Democrats made positive gains in the 2006 and 2008 elections.
Democrats during Obama’s presidency lost 11 governorships including Illinois, 13 U.S. Senate seats, 69 House seats, and 913 state legislative seats and 30 state legislative chambers. “The shedding of U.S. House seats, state legislative seats and statehouse control is at least twice the average two-term losses from Truman through George W. Bush”, claims Sabato.
Sabato goes even further…Obama’s Democratic “presidential penalty” is rougher than usual for a few reasons. “First, voters in midterm elections tend to be older and whiter, thus more conservative. Groups that are overwhelmingly Democratic, such as young people and minorities, are more likely to turn out in stronger numbers for presidential elections”.
Also, Democratic losses in 2010-2014 could not have come at a worse time given redistricting across the country. With more Republicans in control of statehouses, they have authority over the lines that delineate seats for U.S. Senate, House and legislative races. “There is a heavy amount of gerrymandering,” Sabato said. Not to mention, Voter ID legislation which is targeting constituencies that normally do not vote Republican. The Conservative Right, Tea Party or otherwise plays for keeps. They will cheat if they have to even if it is within the law. Let’s face it gerrymandering is cheating.
But for Democrats it’s not all doom and gloom, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The data from the 2014-15 election results appear to say more about who did not vote than who did. Younger voters and minorities, two pillars of the Democratic coalition that twice elected Barack Obama-stayed home in large numbers, which is typical during midterm elections. The female vote, as it relates to republicans is another voting block that is continuously getting smaller as we approach the Presidential elections in 2016. If anything, data from the midterms and state legislative elections reveals that Republicans could face a steeper climb than usual as the party sets its sights on the White House. If that trend holds — another decline in women supporting Republicans — the GOP could find itself more reliant than ever on white males, the one slice of the American electorate on which the GOP has a lock. And the kinds of policies and campaigns that cater effectively to a white male base are likely to further alienate the voters who are increasingly decisive in presidential races — young, minority and female. Recent national elections have been defined by a basic demographic shift that many experts still see as operative: The country is growing markedly less white…now can you see the attraction of a Marco Rubio to Republican coffers as opposed to a Jeb Bush.
What would a Rubio or Jeb Bush “Presidential Penalty” look like if they were elected? We may never know. But, President Obama has always had his work cut out for him since he and Joe Biden stepped into the White House, but what Sabato doesn’t point out in all of his research is that being the first African-American President, bought America’s reality about race to the forefront again. The Conservative Right, and their “White Privilege” objection to working with this President in any constructive way. Eventually backfired with record low opinion and no confidence polls attached to this Congress and an eventual resigning of the House Speaker who could not work with a caucus that was controlled by the “Extreme Right Wing” of his party. Even with that uphill climb President Obama has an impressive record that has gone unmatched with past presidents since LBJ. Yes, that includes Ronald Reagan….He is the Jackie Robinson of American Politics, no matter what anyone says about him, he remains presidential, controlled and unwavering on his agenda.
Today, it’s very easy for coalitions on the left to be cynical about politics, as voters clearly did during the last election cycle, this is the Boogeyman/Frankenstein democrats really have to beat, for this is what leads to low voter turnout — particularly among young voters, which works to the GOP’s advantage.
Hello Illinois…anybody up for a re-call?
It’s important for democrats to be steadfast and work with their coalitions, Millennials, Women, LGBT, Latinos, African-Americans and independents during all election cycles not just presidential. Yes we did elect Barack Obama in two Presidential election cycles, but what does it mean when we lose the Statehouse and a majority of congressional seats in the process.
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